The Truth Has Altered to Match the Narrative

As the current (as I write) narrative moving from "Happy Gingrichmas" to "Newt is Over (If You Want It)", pundits and other horse-race handicappers are scrambling for any correlation to assume is causal. And so now we're going from the idea that debates, not TV ads, are where it's at (see here) to once again assume that negative ads work. Maybe they do, maybe they don't.

What do we know, empirically? Gingirch saw the latest surge of anybody-but-Mitt (ABM) sentiment, after the Bachmann-Perry-Cain Overdrive; Paul's numbers are up; Gingrich put on a happy face (it is rumored that he peeled it off of a small child himself) for a nice-guy ad; everyone else has been putting up TV attack ads against Gingrich. These may not be in strict chronological order.

It could be that some of these have a causal relationship. It could be that the attack ads are being seen by the same people polled about potential voting behavior. It could be that those polled people (the PP) only saw debates and on that basis moved away from Gingrich (actually, this is a canard; what are the odds, really, of the same people being hit by Quinnipiac or the WSJ or Pew, etc.?). Could be that the people polled who picked Gingrich we picking based on what they thought others were choosing (this is a real theory in Poli Sci), or that these people are just now learning who Newt is, or blahblahhypothesiscakes. Aliens. Or we could blame Majestic 12. They're always up to something.

I suppose my real question is: does there need to be a connection between all these facts? Are we so trained by reading fiction from the Holmes stories to CSI that everything shown on-screen must be taken as a piece of evidence, as something that ties into a critical narrative? Sure, the question of "do political ads on TV work?" is an interesting one, and there's an awful lot of airtime earned by ads, and there's a lot of correlation -- but has anyone done a control?

True, not Right (Part 2)

(Though I'm far more on Dean Starkman's side, I'll give in to Jeff Jarvis' trope of "iterative journalism" here. That'll teach me to dash something off in the WordPress interface, rather than using a text editor and forcing myself to revise between the cut and the paste.) In a recent interview with On the Media, Kathleen Hall Jamieson, the director of Factcheck.org and Flackcheck.org, also gets a bit into the conceptualizing of the political TV ads that I bemoaned, though obliquely. And one of her quantitative claims might make me back away from my thoughts that the current state of ads is not just poor, but anti-democratic.

The focus of Jamieson's segment is on how watching the debates is good for you, in that the questioning could knock candidates loose from their proscribed talking points (of course, the first precept of being a politician is answering the questions you want to answer, not the one you're given, but the "batter up" of this is one of the reasons we watch). This is in opposition to the controlled and carefully staged medium of an ad. She also takes the example of the whole chorus line of Republican candidates responding to the hypothetical of a 10x spending cut/tax increase, or to "Obamacare"; of that mass mindset, she says, "you can't learn all of that in advertising".

But when Brooke asks whether she sees any value in political ads, Jamieson lets drop that "advertising, in general, contains accurate, not inaccurate statements." When Brooke -- and, I'm guessing, the rest of us -- expresses surprise, Jamieson replies, "That's historically true. And I tell you that having spent more hours than I'd care to count analyzing claim by claim in the ads." Of course, that doesn't mean there aren't serious deceptions, she adds. (I have to award her points for her "and that's why we need a lot of good journalism wrapped around this political process" plug. Full employment for journalists!)

As I wrote in the previous post, the major theories on voter choice in modern political science research tend to assume that potential voters act based on rational choice. Voters may be motivated to find the candidate or party that is the "nearest neighbor" on positions, or which candidate will "balance" the government, or who culturally is closest. These theories are not empirically well tested, and are vulnerable the same way economic theories based on the "rational actor" hypothesis are -- but the point is all rely on not only the voter collecting reasonably accurate information about the candidates, but that the voter has high confidence that he or she can collect reasonably accurate information about the candidates.

If these ads can dole out even bits of accurate information, as Jamieson suggests is true in the aggregate, I suppose I can live with their horrible production values, their smarm, their general suicide-inducing aura. If they even provide hooks for as-well-distributed journalistic annotations, they might serve an actual pro-democratic function (again, small-d democratic). But this requires not just institutional resistance to that Romney's staffer's promotion of the medium as "propaganda", and the small degree of righteousness to believe your production of an ad is to help the country, not to help Candidate A win.

True, not Right

The days of hard-drinking journalists (at least drinking on the job) are long over, but it's hard not to picture the anonymous "top operative" of the Romney campaign having to be plied by a few shots, in a dim corner of a motel bar, before he'd let go to the NY Times the following quote:

"First of all, ads are propaganda by definition. We are in the persuasion business, the propaganda business…. Ads are agitprop…. Ads are about hyperbole, they are about editing. It’s ludicrous for them to say that an ad is taking something out of context…. All ads do that. They are manipulative pieces of persuasive art."

There's just something to the overly associative attempts at justification, of moving the context of the political ad (let alone this specific political ad), the undergraduate stabs and big words, coupled with the macho defensiveness one usually only sees in 22-year-old traders after some Ketel One and/or blow in a Wall St. afterhours club, that speaks to a slightly altered state of mind.

Not to mention the giant question of whether political ads really should be ads in the same way "buy our soap" ads are ads.

This summer I got to dive a bit into the political science literature around theories of how voters choose. The three big kahunas are proximity theory (voters pick a candidate with positions most closely matching their own), discounting theory (voters pick a candidate to balance ideological power in the government), and directional theory ("I've always voted for Party A, and never gonna vote for Party B"). As you can see, though these theoretical frameworks and assumptions at times overlap a bit and at times are, they carry the same base "rational actor" assumption we see causing such problems in economics. But let's put aside that weakness, along with the fact that none of these have been empirically studied in depth -- the point is that all would suggest the key information voters require for choice is on positions and ideology: where the candidate stands on Issues A-Z, and what course of action that candidate would follow if elected. Do you see any of that going on in political ads? Soap ads may make mention that the product will get your clothes clean, but what they really sell is some emotional connection -- and here is where I have the feeling the above political science theories break, especially in the U.S. system, and why I have the feeling that election tools such as voter advice applications will be problematic in the U.S. where they are catching on in Europe.

So, in a way, what that drunken operative blurted is true. These ads are propaganda. But he's not right, in his implication that damn it, since we're doing it this way, that's how it should be.

Braaaaains. Are squishy.

If you don't know about the whole Singularity woo-woo, just walk on; I'm not going to supply links. Go read Pharyngula. Christopher Chabris, lead author with Daniel Simons of the famous inattentional blindness experiment and the book "The Invisible Gorilla" (NYT review here) wrote in the 16 October 2011 New York Times Book Review about some new books on how the brain works. Or might work. Or might not work. (Oddly, the same review is titled "Think Again" in the print Book Review, but "Is the Brain Good at What It Does?" in the online version of the same text -- makes for tricky searching.) If these studies, and Chabris's take on them, hold any water, this is going to be bad news for people who think we're thisclose to uploading our brains to immortal silicon-and-stainless bodies.

The... conversation... you'll usually end up in when talking to a Singularist centers on their unshakeable belief that the brain is not just metaphorically similar to, in some ways, a computer, but at its base really is a computer. They swear it it's just a matter of time before chips of sufficient processing power arrive so that we can duplicate enough 0/1 switches while also mapping the brain (which they think is simply 0/1 switches) and transfer one to the other (footnote: the data from the most precise brain scans today is thousands of petabyes per human brain -- and that's not including the storage and computation needed to transform that data into a map. And then you just have the map, without even talking about the rules, logic, behavior. The data storage is certainly a problem of engineering, but it's still a big problem. And remember the brain isn't a network; it's a network of networks.). It's a weird, transcendental materialism but one that relies on faith in something ineffable. Their time frame is usually 20 years out. It's always 20 years out. Coincidentally, I'm beginning to think that the average person thinks they'll live for about 20 more years.

There are other logical fallacies at the heart of Singulaism, such as projecting out Moore's Law (see the IEEE on how that's more a rough prediction and one that's not infinitely extensible; uncertain breakthroughs are needed even now to "add at least a half-dozen years" to the viability of Moore's prediction), but I want to be clear: skepticism about the Singularital braincase transfer brigade does not rely on, nor imply, spiritualism. As for how this movement misunderstands the biology of the brain, PZ Myers (see above Pharyngula link) is on top of that. Science is needed here.

And speaking of science, back to one of the books Chabris reviewed: "Brain Bugs: How the Brain's Flaws Shape Our Lives" by Dean Buonomano. The book goes into detail on a number of "bugs" in how our brains tend to work; of particular interest is that a large part of what goes on up there seems to be due to an "associative architecture", which files away much of how we perceive and remember facts about the world in a relational -- and sloppy -- way.

It's not a matter of the limitations of language (e.g., the word "bank" is burdened with manifold contexts and meanings), nor is it a question of having to structure a relational database, which any Filemaker user could do. One experiments showed that exposure to, say, polite words, were later more polite, while an Ig Nobel-winning study (http://www.improbable.com/ig/winners/#ig2011) by Mirjam Tuk and Luk Warlop found that subjects who really, really needed to pee had more self-control than subjects who'd gone before they started the test. This kind of leaky, sloppy associative mechanism could go towards explaining why advertising and appeals to emotion work (sometimes -- of course we can train ourselves out of this) -- and it also is a huge stumbling block, as well as a moral question, for the Singularists.

If we were to be able to map the brain, map the connections in each network, map the connections between each one-to-many network, then we still have the qualitatively different question of how to create the rules governing these connections. How would we deal with leaky associations? I suppose an engineer could concoct a detailed set of rules for each language -- a descriptive task -- and build hard-linked "leakages" into the system. But these leaks are unpredictably dynamic, and affected not only by what we are exposed to every second of our existence, but by second- and higher-order associations; a traumatic exposure to cabbage might link associatively to a grandmother's cooking, and then to grandfather's smoking, and then to ash found on a carpet, and who knows what else. Or it might not, depending on other situational contexts or, as we've seen with the politeness experiment, what else happened that day.

The point is, the programmer would have to make some choice not only about the initial conditions of the artificial brain structure he's planning on beaming himself into, but how the process will unfold. Would you program out depressive associations, a fear reaction to heights?

This speaks to the larger conundrum facing the whole cyborg brain project. More and more research is showing that how we operate, who we are, is largely based on bugs in the system. (Granted, this should come as no surprise to anyone who has dealt with less-than-perfect people -- that is, people -- for more than five minutes.) I won't get into the moral quagmire that's still being plumbed with GMO, designer-gene IVF, etc., but ask instead: would you really want to deal with someone, or be someone, who's "fixed"? It seems to me that it'd be like being stuck with someone who totally doesn't get your sense of humor. More Human than Human? Not fun at parties.

(Of course, Derek Parfit would say that it doesn't matter, as we're never who we were, moment by moment. But that's a whole different book I haven't read yet.)